Christmas 2026
«Patterns of Confidence»
Patterns don’t just help us recognise what we know. They expand our understanding of what might exist.
Patterns help us predict.
From seasons to satellites
For thousands of years, people observed patterns in nature and the sky to anticipate what came next. The changing seasons told them when to sow, when to harvest, and when to prepare for winter.
Estimated arrival time 17:42
Today, navigation systems analyse patterns in traffic, speed, distance, and time to predict our arrival. Different worlds. Same principle: Recognise patterns. Anticipate what comes next.
Some patterns repeat. Others never do.
In periodic patterns, the same structure repeats at regular intervals. Surprisingly, only certain rotational symmetries are possible: 2-, 3-, 4- and 6-fold. Five-fold symmetry doesn’t fit into a repeating two-dimensional grid.
Patterns help us decide.
Recognising patterns allows us to make sense of complexity. Instead of analysing every situation from scratch, we compare what we see with what we already know.
Seeing what others might miss
A doctor recognises patterns in symptoms and test results to identify a disease. AI can help detect subtle patterns in medical data that might otherwise go unnoticed.
Researchers at Harvard have shown that AI can identify people at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer up to three years before diagnosis.
Thinking several moves ahead
Chess is a game of patterns. Experienced players recognise familiar positions, threats, and opportunities – often without calculating every possible move.
The legendary Immortal Game, played by Adolf Anderssen and Lionel Kieseritzky in London in 1851, is a striking example of how recognising opportunities can lead to extraordinary decisions.
Chess position from the Immortal Game: Black to move.
Patterns give us confidence.
History is full of patterns that once seemed impossible to change. Yet again and again, human ingenuity has transformed what we considered normal. These patterns don’t predict the future. But they offer reasons to be confident about what we can achieve.
We learned to extend the day.
For most of history, light after dark meant candles and oil lamps, and both were costly. Gas, electricity and LEDs turned it into something we barely think about.
We made survival more likely.
For most of history, many children never reached adulthood. Vaccines, clean water and modern medicine changed that in little more than a century.
We turned knowledge into opportunity.
For most of history, reading and writing were a privilege of the few. Public schooling turned them into a skill almost everyone shares.
We won back our time.
In 1870, a European worker had barely two weeks off a year. Today it is more than five – and the working year is half as long. Time for learning, for leisure and for the people we love.
We defeated the seemingly inevitable.
For thousands of years, smallpox seemed impossible to stop. A global vaccination campaign defeated it in little more than a decade. In 1980, the WHO declared smallpox eradicated.
Order without repetition.
This pattern never repeats.
For centuries, mathematicians associated order with repetition. Then, in the 1970s, Roger Penrose demonstrated something unexpected: a pattern built from two simple shapes and precise rules that could extend infinitely without ever repeating periodically.
Order without repetition. Structure without periodicity.
When mathematics meets matter.
In 1982, Dan Shechtman observed an atomic structure with the ‘forbidden’ five-fold symmetry. The discovery of quasicrystals challenged established ideas about how matter could be organised. Patterns that once existed only in mathematics had found a counterpart in the physical world.
Patterns expand what’s possible.
The Penrose pattern did not predict the discovery of quasicrystals. But it showed that a different kind of order was possible.
The Einstein tile – one shape, no repetition.
For decades, mathematicians searched for a single shape that could cover an infinite plane, but only in non-periodic arrangements. In 2023, researchers presented the hat. It tiles the plane only aperiodically, but every such tiling needs some mirrored copies.
The Spectre – a tile with no mirror image.
Just two months later came the Spectre, sometimes called the vampire tile. Unlike the hat, it can tile the plane aperiodically using only translations and rotations – without requiring reflected copies.
A single shape, following simple rules, creates endless order without repetition.
A World in Patterns
Each grid has 100 dots. The same 100 dots can tell very different stories.
Patterns of Confidence
History reveals patterns.
Again and again, we have turned scarcity into availability and seemingly fixed limits into new possibilities.
These patterns remind us what we are capable of.
Wherever you celebrate, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Sources
Placido, D. et al. (2023): “A deep learning algorithm to predict risk of pancreatic cancer from disease trajectories”, Nature Medicine 29. Harvard Medical School and University of Copenhagen.
Immortal Game: Anderssen vs Kieseritzky, London, 21 June 1851. A casual game played during the London tournament.
Light: Fouquet, R. & Pearson, P. J. G. (2006), The Energy Journal 27(1); Our World in Data. Child mortality: Gapminder; UN IGME; Our World in Data. Literacy: van Zanden et al. (OECD); UNESCO; World Bank; Our World in Data.
Working hours: Huberman, M. & Minns, C. (2007), Explorations in Economic History 44. Smallpox: Fenner, F. et al. (1988), Smallpox and its Eradication, WHO.
Penrose, R. (1974), Bulletin of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications 10. Quasicrystals: Shechtman, D., Blech, I., Gratias, D. & Cahn, J. W. (1984), Physical Review Letters 53. Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2011.
Hat: Smith, D., Myers, J. S., Kaplan, C. S. & Goodman-Strauss, C. (2024): “An aperiodic monotile”, Combinatorial Theory 4(1). Spectre: same authors (2024): “A chiral aperiodic monotile”, Combinatorial Theory 4(2).
A World in Patterns: sources are given under each grid.
Tipp-Box
Mit diesen drei praxisnahen Tipps stellen Sie die richtigen Weichen, um Daten und KI in Ihrem Unternehmen zielgerichtet und wirkungsvoll zu nutzen.
1. «It’s a Journey»
Der Umgang mit Daten und der Einsatz von AI sind kein einmaliges Vorhaben, sondern ein kontinuierlicher Prozess. Sehen Sie den Weg als Reise: Lernen, anpassen, verbessern – Schritt für Schritt. Dafür braucht es Geduld, Lernbereitschaft und den Willen zur Weiterentwicklung.
2. Fokus auf Mehrwert - kein “Gugus”
Fangen Sie dort an, wo ein klarer Nutzen erkennbar ist – etwa bei einem konkreten Anwendungsfall mit überschaubarem Aufwand. So schaffen Sie erste sichtbare Erfolge und bauen Vertrauen in datenbasierte Lösungen und AI auf. Bleiben Sie dabei fokussiert: Vermeiden Sie technologische Spielereien, die interessant wirken, aber keinen echten Beitrag zum Ziel leisten.
3. Leadership Engagement
Datengetriebene Transformation gelingt nur, wenn sie aktiv von der Führung mitgetragen wird. Es genügt nicht, die Verantwortung an die IT zu delegieren. Führungskräfte müssen die Vision verstehen, sie glaubwürdig kommunizieren – und den Wandel sichtbar vorleben. Ihre Haltung prägt Akzeptanz und Dynamik im gesamten Unternehmen.